[Reader-list] my view on cellular silent day on 30/01/09 by Ranjan Kamath

[bipin]

Dear Rakesh,



You can't have same yardstick of analysis for all the states as far as assembly election is concerned. At present we are talking for Gujarat or Modi. Grossly it is not possible to have uniform growth in all the constituencies', districts, taluqas. Since last 50 years, there remain difference in growth in the different areas that difference bound to remain for some times, however it minimize gradually when overall development is going on. At present all the ports development of Gujarat has utmost priorities and on development of the same in phase manner almost all the area of Gujarat will be benefited. Special Investment Region (SIR) is mostly implemented in un-developed areas will also be benefited.

 

You are giving cast factor. No doubt, there is a cast factor affecting to the particular constituencies. But, say BJP candidate of particular cast who dominates that constituency, the other party like Congress knows this factor very well and they will certainly put similar capacity candidate only to counter this effect or vice versa and such effect will grossly nullified. Rakesh, voting format is very complex issue and one should go with the cast details since as informed all the parties/candidates knows their constituencies cast factor and plan their strategy accordingly. For your information, unlike past so many Muslim voters has voted for BJP this time in Gujarat.

 

For MP you much better as its your homeland and I welcome your analysis. There after, I will also say something in my point of view.



thanks

Bipin Trivedi



  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Rakesh Iyer 
  To: bipin 
  Cc: Taha Mehmood ; sarai-list 
  Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 10:24 PM
  Subject: Re: [Reader-list] my view on cellular silent day on 30/01/09 by Ranjan Kamath


  Dear Bipin (and all)

  You have stated two points in the arguments you made about Modi. One was the fact that Modi has now decided to use development as a tool to win elections. The other is that the people of Gujarat have elected him on the basis of development. The first has been answered by Taha, and for the moment, I am not commenting on it. I would do so sometime later. My reference is to the second point.

  You have stated that solely development has been a factor for winning elections in Gujarat for Modi and BJP. This has also been stated to be the criterion for the victory of BJP in Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, as well as that of the Congress in Delhi. However, my discussion with my friend Aashish (a member of this list) has certainly opened my eyes, that it is a highly wrong statement to be put up as a general one. And the reason is this. 

  I think the media and the upper elites and the middle class, in this country, have devised a simplistic way of analyzing elections, especially when the verdicts are confounding for them, in order to prove that they knew why the results came out the way they came out. However, in all this, they forget many things. And those have to be pointed out in this mail. 

  Gujarat has 182 Assembly constituencies. Has Modi developed all the 182 assembly constituencies on an equal basis? Do all the constituencies, or at least by and large most, have received the same kind of development in at least 3-4 sectors, like agriculture, transport and communication like roads, banking facilities of state etc.? I don't think that would be the case. And mind you, such things can lead to complaints of discrimination to certain regions and constituencies of Gujarat, against the Chief Minister and his govt, and therefore his party.

  Secondly. Compared to 2002, has the situation improved in all the sectors in Gujarat? Or has it deteriorated? Which have improved, and which have not? And did Modi try to help those sectors which didn't improve, and did people feel that he tried to improve them?  More important is that, even if it did improve, was the potential growth possible? Or did we miss out the potential target? And if yes, by how much? And what do people feel about this?

  Thirdly. There are many who think people vote on the basis of caste. Do all the constituencies have same percentage of Dalits, Muslims, Patels, upper castes and others? Or is it different? Is it the same for all BJP won constituencies? Or even there, is there difference?

  These are important questions. 

  The fact is, that instead of analyzing elections the macro-way, (which is also the way you have analyzed development, and also have stated Gujarati people to have analyzed development and BJP), one should look at the constituency level, to decide why has the BJP candidate has won, or why has the Congress candidate won, and so on.

  There can be many reasons, and perceptions. It may be that all Muslims voted for Congress candidate and therefore he won. Or, all Patels voted combinedly in favor of BJP candidate and so he won. Or, some Patels didn't vote for BJP candidate, as they were angry that Modi had disposed of Keshubhai Patel from the BJP, and they felt a Patel leader was marginalized. Or, Modi was perceived to be a strong CM. Or, Kolis felt that Modi had failed to protect their women (there was a rape case of a woman belonging to Koli community in Saurashtra a couple of months before the assembly elections) and hence voted against it. And so on.

  I am not saying that what you said is wrong. It could be right. But there is no substantial statistical analysis to decide that which reason was right or which was not right. Therefore, it is very difficult to assume that Modi won on the basis of development. Or on Hindutva. Or on Moditva, as he would like us to believe in some sense. It may be other reasons as well. It may be that the candidates he had chosen had good following in their constituencies. Or it may be that BSP had spoiled the chances of Congress candidates. But there should be statistical analysis for this. 

  The reason I say this is that, it is more starkly true in my own state (Madhya Pradesh). Now, the Congress was doing well in the bye-elections till about one and a half years back. And many believed that the BJP there would lose its govt. Instead it won. And it has won by 37.50% votes being secured by it, which is the lowest number of votes secured by any party in the history of the MP assembly elections to form a government. Now what happened in these one and a half years to ensure it won. God knows. Everybody is giving some reasons, but I don't think anybody has anything except possible perceptions, which may or may not be true, but which dont' have facts to back them up. 

  One more thing. It's wrong for all of us, including me, to say that Gujarat voted for Modi. Modi was voted in by majority of the voters who turned up on the day of election, not by all Gujarati voters who turned up, nor by all Gujaratis who are eligible voters. Instead, we can simply say Modi won Gujarat elections. That would be better. 

  Regards

  Rakesh 

  PS :Thanks to Aashish for this wonderful discussion to lead to this kind of insight.