[Reader-list] Barbarians at the gate, are we ready?

[Pawan Durani]

http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/19barbarians-at-the-gate-are-we-ready.htm

February 19, 2009
The recent surrender by the Pakistani State to the Taliban
[Images<http://search.rediff.com/imgsrch/default.php?MT=taliban>
] in the Swat valley may well turn out to be a watershed in the history of
the Indian subcontinent. In terms of long-term impact, this may even
overshadow the recent Mumbai
[Images<http://search.rediff.com/imgsrch/default.php?MT=mumbai>
] massacres. All signs point to the 'Talibanisation' of Pakistan. Here are
several pointers:

   - I A Rehman writing in the *Dawn* newspaper on February 12 says 'the
   Pakistani armed forces were indoctrinated in General Zia-ul Haq's rule to
   reserve senior posts for genuine Islamists. The Pakistan army
[Images<http://search.rediff.com/imgsrch/default.php?MT=pakistan army>
   ] may have the capacity to kill hordes of people, but it will not -- and
   cannot -- do that.' The army and the State may well disintegrate if it does.

   - General Ashfaq Kayani, son of a former soldier, is the first non-elite
   chief of the Pakistani army. Given his socio-economic background, he is more
   likely to be part of the 'natural' constituency of the Taliban.
   - We have the example of Iran -- on February 11, 1979, when the mass
   upsurge to impose 'Islamic rule' reached its zenith, the Iranian army
   declared its 'neutrality' in the ongoing conflict. This sealed the fate of
   the Shah of Iran. A similar happening in Pakistan is very likely.
   - Slumdog Jihadis: The *Dawn* on December 18, 2008, quoted the Pakistan
   Planning Commission's Deputy Chairman Sardar Asef Ahmad Ali that poverty had
   skyrocketed to above 40 per cent in the country, leaving millions helpless.
   It is these poor/unemployed/uneducated people that are cannon fodder for the
   jihadis. The interrogation of the lone surviving Mumbai terrorist Ajmal
   Kasab's [Images
<http://search.rediff.com/imgsrch/default.php?MT=kasab>]story fits the
bill. There are such 48 million Ajmals waiting in Pakistan to
   be primed against India.

As a student of military history, I found it extraordinary that Indians were
always blissfully unaware of developments in their neighbourhood. No ruler
of Delhi [Images
<http://search.rediff.com/imgsrch/default.php?MT=delhi>]ever woke up
when the enemy crossed the Khyber Pass. The first stirrings of
action were usually when the enemy was at the gates, at Panipat, just a
day's march from Delhi.

Indians have been made to totally forget the holocaust that they faced in
past; the name Hindukush itself means 'Hindu killer', a reminder of the days
when thousands of Indians died on the mountain slopes while being taken to
Central Asia as slaves.(the Encyclopaedia Britannica quoting a 12th century
traveller Ibn Batua).

Nearer our times, the 1981 UN declaration of Universal Human Rights writes;
'Among the genocides of human history, the highest number of people killed
in the small span of time is in Bangladesh in 1971. An average of 6,000 to
12 000 people were killed every single day. This is the highest daily
average in history.' The lower estimate shows that 15 lakh were killed, a
majority of them Hindus. A commission of inquiry appointed by the Pakistan
government, the Hamidoor Rehman Commission, has recorded testimonies of
Pakistani army officers who have quoted General Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi
asking the question 'How many Hindus have you killed today?' as a matter of
routine. We have forgotten this recent episode as well.

*Demography is destiny*

Pakistan has a very high rate of population growth. Although it has declined
from three percent at the time of the census in 1981 to the present 1.9 per
cent it is still the highest among populous countries of more than 50
million, except Nigeria. The more reliable indicator of population growth is
the total fertility rate -- the number of children born to a woman in her
reproductive span. Pakistan's TFR is four. A TFR of 2.1 is considered
replacement level which leads to a stable population.

In Pakistan, the under-15 population is 37 per cent of the total. Given the
poor education, health and skills of this youth, they are fodder for jihad
and little else. With the mullahs constantly drumming that all of Pakistan's
ills are due to the evil Hindu India/Zionist Israel/Christian America
troika, Pakistan's biggest export for a long time is likely to be terror.

If by some miracle, Pakistan is to implement population control tomorrow, it
will take two to three decades for it to take effect. Even if the
re-brainwashing was to begin now, again it is bound to take time. The sad
fact is that neither of these things is happening either tomorrow or any
time soon.

*Impact of the economic meltdown*

For decades over 25 percent of the Pakistani labour force was employed in
the oil-rich Middle East. With the economic downturn and lower oil prices,
the boom is over. The Dubai shopping festival was a flop this year. The
returning labour force will only add to the unemployment in the country.

In any case, Pakistan has very little industry and its agriculture is
confined to Punjab and parts of Sindh. Most of the country's landmass is
arid and unfit for agriculture. Rural poverty will gallop in the near
future.

*Ripe for implosion*

The politics of extremism as represented by the Taliban, the economic
meltdown and demographic pressure all point to a major implosion in
Pakistan. Are we ready for the fallout?

Despite this threat staring in our face there is a palpable lack of national
unity -- another Indian trait. In the last four years, we have let our
defence apparatus go to seed, so much so that we have lost the conventional
edge over Pakistan.

Given this situation the only option for India is to 'isolate and contain'
Pakistan. That still leaves the million dollar question about Pakistan's
nuclear weapons. Here one hopes that all those joint exercise with special
forces of the US, UK, Israel, China and Russia
[Images<http://search.rediff.com/imgsrch/default.php?MT=russia>
] were in preparation for this very contingency.

If not, then God save the world!

*Colonel Dr Anil Athale (retd) is a former joint director, war studies,
ministry of defence, and co-ordinator of the Pune-based Initiative for Peace
and Disarmament.*