[Reader-list] Is peace and reconciliation an illusion?

Taha Mehmood 2tahamehmood at googlemail.com
Sat Jan 24 21:21:19 IST 2009


Dear Rahul Asthana

Thank you for posting the link to the blog and sharing with us your
assumptions and questions.

The argument in your post seems to me as thus-

A survey is carried out by Aga Khan University, which is a respectable
university of Karachi. The findings of the survey suggest that 15%
support suicide bombings. These finding makes you anxious. As they
would cause anxiety in any thinking person.


The poser is-

Mind you, this is Karachi,probably the most cosmopolitan of all Pak cities.
 in my assumption that there is probably no other place in Pakistan that can
> > be expected to have lower numbers than Karachi in the questions polled.

The premise in this argument seems to be, cosmopolitanism breeds less
fundamentalism. If that is the case then how do you explain Bombay of
1992, Delhi of 1984, LA of 1992 etc etc? Could you please explain this
co-relationship, that you seem to be hinting at? Where do you think
this co-relationship started, clearly if you look at the history of
urbanism then surely cities must not have become cosmopolitan right from the
word go? So these Cities must have evolved into major trading centers
and must have acquired traits of a cosmopolitan city.In your learned
opinion when was the time when city centers or rather people who were
in charge of  these city centers, decided-this much
and no more, from now on we are not going to allow religious bigotry
to come in between trade and cosmopolitanism? Could you please give us
some evidence to
support your rather profound observation?

Now, lets come back to the blog that you so kindly posted.

The Survey which Ammerhamza posted was part of news report by Nayel
Noorani. This survey was conducted by,Kazim SF, Aly Z, Bangash HK,
Harchandani BP, Irfan AB, Javed SM,
Khalil-ur-Rehman R, Naqvi H, and Khan MM under the guidance of one,
Abdul Wahab Yousafzai, who is a professor of Psychiatry at the Aga
Khan University.

(Please follow the link for more-
http://www.aku.edu/medicalcollege/psychiatry/abdulwahab.shtml)

For this survey 215 people were interviewed. The population of Karachi
according to the official website of City District Government of
Karachi is 18,000,000 2007 (Please see-http://www.karachicity.gov.pk/)

The finding of the Survey represents the opinions of just 215 people.
Now, I do not understand how could the opinion of 215 people  in any
possible way represent the opinions and attitudes 18,000,000 2007
people. This means that the ratio of sample size to the census was to
the magnitude of just 0.00000011 percent of the population.


Please do not get me wrong here, Rahul, because I earnestly want to
understand this relationship between numbers and representation.

But at the same time I am not able to decide and think with as much
confidence as you seem to be thinking.

Your confidence to relate to views of just 215 people to a whole city
and post this on a public list is indeed worth an applaud.

May I plead that even I want to say things with as much confidence,
but I am hesitant, because there are these questions in my mind, which
seem to be absent in your observations, so I presume there is perhaps a
clarity in your thinking, especially in so far as the deducing
generalizations from
a sample survey goes, so please help me with my questions, for I
clearly do not know?

Please allow me present my questions again.

Can opinions of 215 people represent a city whose population 18,000,000 2007?

If yes, then how, what are the precedents, where can we find evidence
of such a practice?

If no, then can we expect some sort of an explanation from you on the list?

Furthermore, please allow me to quote from the summary of the report-

The majority of the respondents condemned suicide bombing and
disagreed with the notion that Islam or any other religion supports
it. Belonging to the Sunni Muslim sect and strong adherence to
religion predicted support for suicide bombing. The majority believed
suicide bombing to be a result of religious fundamentalism. Opinion
was divided as to whether suicide bombers have an underlying
psychiatric illness. Further studies with larger sample sizes are
needed to determine the attitudes and perceptions of the Pakistani
population regarding this important issue.

(You may access this report here- http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18664233)

The summary of the report seems to saying things, many things, which
do not seem to be as clear as your assertion about that whole
cosmopolitanism and tendency to commit suicide while bombing seems to
be.

The report is also saying-

1. Opinion was divided as to whether suicide bombers have an
underlying psychiatric illness.

This means that those 215 people also think that these bombers are
perhaps mentally
deranged. That bombers are mad. Can we read this as Muslims think that
suicide bombers are mentally deranged? I do not know whether we can
and I am equally grappling with questions as to why not?

What do you feel about this, Rahul. should we allow this opinion to
represent the whole of karachi or should we ignore it? If we allow it
represent the whole of Karachi, then please tell me why? If not then
please explain?

2. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to determine
the attitudes and perceptions of the Pakistani population regarding
this important issue.

What do you think about this Rahul? Should they increase the sample
size from the current 215 to 250 may be or perhaps 600 or may be
1000000 or reduce it to 166 or just one? or should they just leave it
at this? How many people- in you opinion, your considered, thoughtful
opinion Rahul, should, and I am deliberately using a normative
'should', be interviewed, before we can say with confidence that their
opinions represent the opinions of an entire CITY. A  cosmopolitan
city.

3.  The majority believed suicide bombing to be a result of religious
fundamentalism.

These people, these 215 people seem so ignorant that they did not
bring in cosmopolitanism, because you seem to be so clear that
cosmopolitanism = less suicide bombings. These people are saying
something else. religion plus fundamentalism is equal to suicide
bombings. What do we do now? How do you think we must bridge this
conceptual divide Rahul?

I hope you shall pay some attention in clarifying my confusions
regarding your confidence in asserting that 215 people of city, a
cosmo city, can represent the entire agglomerations of 18,000,000 2007
which makes this city.

If for a moment we consider this representation was not valid and you
did not know that only 215 people were interviewed then, then could I
suggest you to please explain it to us, that opinions of how many
people should qualify as a valid representative opinion of a city. A
Cosmo City!!

Warm regards

Taha









On 1/24/09, Rahul Asthana <rahul_capri at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Dear Yousuf,
> > Have you come across this survey published in a Pakistani newspaper?
> > http://karachi.metblogs.com/2008/08/28/15-in-karachi-back-suicide-bombers-study/
> > "Fifteen percent of participants in the Karachi-based study supported
> > suicide bombing and said that Islam and other religions supported it."
> > "However, nearly 50 percent of all those surveyed in Karachi believed that
> > suicide bombing was acceptable in Palestine, Kashmir and Lebanon."
> > Mind you, this is Karachi,probably the most cosmopolitan of all Pak cities.
> > You probably know Pakistan better than me,so can you comment if I am wrong
> > in my assumption that there is probably no other place in Pakistan that can
> > be expected to have lower numbers than Karachi in the questions polled.
> > Do you think this is a significant difference? How do you plan to bridge
> > this divide?
> >
> > Thanks
> > Rahul


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