[Reader-list] Inside Tehran - more news

Zainab Bawa bawazainab79 at gmail.com
Sat Jun 20 15:08:04 IST 2009


Last Updated: 2009-06-19 2:21:01 PM EDT

 A relatively large crowd was present to hear Khameini declared during the
prayers, while Reformist leaders called on their supporters to stay home. It
was very easy to notice that this crowd was also much older than those we
have seen revolting.

There were two sermons, a religious one and a political one.
- The religious sermon itself was rather short and stayed on topic. It
concentrated at first on peace and tranquility, leading into the fact that
the Revolution was the Will of Allah, that it was sacred and its goals were
the goals of Allah. He continued by asking Allah victory over their common
enemies, and that people who went against the Revolution were enemies of
Allah.

- The policial speech was much longer and disjointed. He started by thanking
everyone for the election, then he proceeded to blame the West, claimed that
Iran was one of the most democratic country on Earth and that the results
were not rigged. He claimed that while yes, there is some corruption in
Iran, it's nowhere near the UK MP expenses scandal. He then directly
threatened the pro-Reformists leaders, saying that all the violence will be
their responsibility. This is all the works of Zionist spies and British
radio, and Hillary Clinton was responsible for Waco so Iran is better than
America and the West.

There are three major statements to be gleaned from these speech, with
further confirmation of a fourth. However boring and long-winded it might
have been to the Western ear, it was a major milestone of this revolution,
and its implications are far-reaching:

1- His declaration that the Islamic Revolution sacred, that its goals were
the goals of Allah and that those who went against it were the enemies of
Allah. He then asked Allah victory over the enemies.

This is major. He has in fact painted the entire reformist movement as being
anti-Islamic. Due to his position, and the tone that he adopted, this is
basically a death sentence delivered to those who will keep on protesting.
Not unexpected, but a bold move nonetheless.

2 - He fully supports Ahmadinejad.

This is not a surprise, but he did not back down one inch. He does not give
credibility to any of the Reformist claims, and says to either toe the line,
or suffer the consequences.

3 - He has put the responsability of violence on the shoulders of the
Reformist leaders, and openly declared that he is not going to tolerate it
anymore.

This means that the repression from now on will be much more violent, and
has more or less openly threatened the leaders of the Revolution that they
will pay with their lives if they continue.

*4 - As confirmed by Stratfor, the Revolutionary Guard has taken over from
the police in all matters of domestic law and order. This effectively means
that they are going to start crushing dissent as well, and that they have
allied themselves to the regime.*

Out of all major developments, this is the biggest one. Will the army stay
Neutral, toe the line or side with the Reformists?

It seems that in reaction to being relegated second in the Satans category,
the U.S. House has decided to pass a resolution supporting the protesters
and Obama is expected to endorse it, which will most likely lead to further
delegitimization of the Reformist movement.

In other news, things are not rosy for the Basij and there are increasing
signs that they are starting not only to lose ground, but to fear for their
safety. There are many reports that most Basij forces are now hiding their
identities with masks for fear of reprisal. There are websites being created
featuring images and often identities of Basij who have been violently
repressing students, calling for actin to be taken against those men.

I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation
only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and
what will happen in the future. If you want to link this, here is the
website, updated as the situation changes:

*https://sites.google.com/site/tatsumairanupdate/*

-- 
Zainab Bawa
Ph.D. Student and Independent Researcher

Gaining Ground ...
http://zainab.freecrow.org

http://cis-india.org/research/cis-raw/histories-of-the-internet/transparency-and-politics


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