[Reader-list] Election Forecast

Kshmendra Kaul kshmendra2005 at yahoo.com
Tue May 19 14:41:57 IST 2009


Deart Anupam
 
Thank you for this note. 
 
I have often asked the question, "Why did the people of Gujarat send Modi back into Power (Assembly)? What does it say about them?"
 
It is the first attempt on this List I have seen that tries to reflect upon Gujarat - it's electorate - Modi - BJP and the various considerations that can come into play.
 
The norm on this List has been bickerings over 'Modi-God v/s Modi-Monster' and 'Hai! Hai! BJP v/s Wah! Wah! BJP'. Purely propagandist fare from one side or the other.
 
This election BJP picked up an additional seat in Gujarat. Did Modi pick it up or BJP? There are interesting analyses floating around about how many of Modi's (insisted upon by him) candidates lost and how many of Modi-didnt-want-them-as-candidates succeeded. It also remains to seen that whether BJP, although it picked up an additional seat, had an increase in it's vote-share in Gujarat. 
 
Nitish did not want Modi campaigning in Bihar and his stand seems to have been vindicated by the election results. Also, the success rate of candidates of BJP or it's Allies has been poor in the constituencies (outside Gujarat) that saw Modi campaigning.
 
The BJP has been claiming that the Congress (and it's Allies's) better-than-before performance was at the cost of Left / 3rd Front / 4th Front. Only the Vote-Shares will tell us whether this is factual. The No of Seats got does not tell us much in the ridiculous First-Past-The-Post system we follow. 
 
Kshmendra
 


--- On Mon, 5/18/09, anupam chakravartty <c.anupam at gmail.com> wrote:


From: anupam chakravartty <c.anupam at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Reader-list] Election Forecast
To: "sarai list" <reader-list at sarai.net>
Date: Monday, May 18, 2009, 6:50 PM


Dear all,

We have been discussing gujarat, so i thought of putting up a small note as
im writing from Vadodara. Especially if we consider chiman bhai's time, when
things went topsy turvy. This was the phase when BJP from the urban pockets
extended its reach to rural Gujarat. however, for a long time the tribal
belt was out of BJP's reach. when shankarsinh vaghela contested with BJP
party ticket in 1991 from Godhra assembly seat (panchmahals district,
considered the part of the tribal belt), he had won this seat. however, in
1996, he lost the election which party insiders and the lesser-known anti
Modi lobby believed to have got religious leaders (read sadhus) against
Vaghela. Subsequently, in 1998, vaghela turned to congress, even as he
claims that he is close to RSS and often terms Modi as a fake sanghi.

As you think Rakesh, Gujaratis do not really vote for that macho identity
that BJP tries to portray, even though it looks like when you watch modi's
speeches and people going gaga over his words as jingoistic. but
increasingly, most of the gujaratis consider modi as an empty barrel just
like advani. full of words and always banking on the IAS cadres, as gujarat
over the years had an illustrious batch of officers who shaped the state  of
infact, one of the main reasons why Patan BJP candidate lost the elections
was because of his tainted image. similarly, bardoli seat, which had
candidates who were really brilliant. There was 29-year old Ritesh Vasava,
an IAS aspirant from BJP pitted against the winner, Tushar Chowdhary, who
performed really well in the last five years, which is why Bardoli
electorate voted for Chowdhary.

Gujaratis are just like any other people straddled between devil and the
deep sea. you can say that BJP in certain ways has manufactured its own
opposition inside the state that would create mandate for it to rule for
some years. the real issues such as discrepancies in the claims made by modi
in Vibrant gujarat this year, rampant pollution in Ankleshwar and bharuch
district, diamond workers' plight, water issues in tribal belt especially in
Dahod district, high rate of crimes against women in urban areas such as
ahmedabad and vadodara, skewed sex ratio in saurashtra, fishermen's plight
and securing the coastline and other border outposts are still major issues
in the state, which needs to addressed immediately by whoever is there in
power in centre or state.

regards
anupam

On 5/18/09, Kshmendra Kaul <kshmendra2005 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> Dear Rakesh
>
> "And unlike Gujarati society (or a section of Gujarati society), other
> societies are not worried about their masculinity that they have to portray
> it again and again........"
>
> You are right. Within the limits of my 'sight' and 'understanding' your
> comment was a racist one.
>
> Kshmendra
>
>
> --- On Sun, 5/17/09, Rakesh Iyer <rakesh.rnbdj at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> From: Rakesh Iyer <rakesh.rnbdj at gmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [Reader-list] Election Forecast
> To: "anupam chakravartty" <c.anupam at gmail.com>
> Cc: "sarai list" <reader-list at sarai.net>
> Date: Sunday, May 17, 2009, 2:05 PM
>
>
> Dear Kshamendra
>
> I think my comment can or may be seen as racist by some and non-racist by
> others. It depends on your sight. and understanding.
>
> My comment was not on the Gujarati society at whole, but on those who elect
> BJP on the reason that Muslims have to be taught their lesson and that
> Hindus are weak and effete. It's not a comment on those who vote for BJP
> due
> to progress, their development, or petty or personal gains. For them we can
> think and discuss differently.
>
> However I used both 'the Gujarati society'  and 'a section of the Gujarati
> society' simply because either of them may be true. And if it hurts
> Gujaratis, they should actually introspect on why Modi gets elected for
> certain reasons in Gujarat, and the very same reasons ensure that BJP never
> gets power at the Centre. (like Modi's antics, his high-vitriolic speeches
> and so on, which at national level ensure NDA's defeat time and again). And
> they should ponder whether the value systems which have allowed Modi to
> flower, can actually help the society at large or not, Are these values the
> hallmark of a developed society, and a developed country, which we wish to
> become by 2020?
>
> Otherwise, Gujarat will keep electing BJP, and the Centre will still be the
> UPA's. The BJP doesn't seem to analyze this question ever, so Gujaratis
> only
> have the choice to look at it (Or again a section of Gujaratis, and here
> you
> can understand which section I refer to).
>
> Because after all, it hurts me not that Modi gets elected again and again;
> it hurts me that a section of the Gujarati middle class feels that Muslims
> deserved post-Godhra, that they are Pakistan supporters, that Congress will
> bring progress only to Muslims (which it never did in the first place to a
> substantial extent). I dont' want Modi to be dismissed arbitarily, but what
> I want is that society (or a section of society) to introspect whether it
> is
> doing right or wrong by believing such value systems.
>
> And if still people feel offended, I apologize.
>
> Regards
>
> Rakesh
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