[Urbanstudy] Burgeoning cities face catastrophe, says UN

[arpita at esgindia.org]

Burgeoning cities face catastrophe, says UN
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2113207,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=12

· Urban dwellers to outstrip rural population next year
· Big rise in poverty, slums and pollution feared

Graphic: the new urban world
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2007/06/27/URBAN_WORLD_2806.pdf

John Vidal, environment editor
Thursday June 28, 2007
The Guardian

Humanity will make the historic transition from a rural to an urban
species some time in the next year, according to the latest UN population
figures. The shift will be led by Africa and Asia, which are expected to
add 1.6 billion people to their cities over the next 25 years.

The speed and scale of inevitable global urbanisation is so great most
countries will not be remotely prepared for the impact it will have,
Thoraya Obaid, executive director of the UN Population Fund, says. "In
human history we have never seen urban growth like this. It is
unprecedented."

Ms Obaid added: "In 2008, half of the world's population will be in urban
areas. The shift from rural to urban changes a balance that has lasted for
millennia. Within one generation, five billion people, or 60% of humanity,
will live in cities. The urban population of Africa and Asia is set to
double in this time." She said that each week the numbers living in cities
grew by nearly a million.

"Most cities [in developing countries] already have pressing concerns,
including crime, lack of clean water and sanitation, and sprawling slums.
But these problems pale in comparison with those that could be raised by
future growth. If we do not plan ahead it will be a catastrophe. The
changes are too fast to allow planners simply to react. If governments
wait, it will be too late to [gain] advantages for the coming growth."

According to the State of the World Population Report, which Ms Obaid
launched yesterday in London, large-scale population growth will take
place in the cities of Asia, Africa and Latin America. It suggests the
largest transition to cities will occur in Asia, where the number of
urbanites will almost double to 2.6 billion in 2030. Africa is expected to
add 440 million to its cities in the same period, and Latin America and
the Caribbean nearly 200 million. Rural populations are expected to
decrease worldwide by 28 million people.

But urbanisation can be positive. "No country in the industrial age has
ever achieved significant economic growth without urbanisation, said Ms
Obaid. "Cities concentrate poverty but they present poor people's best
hope of escaping it ... The potential benefits of urbanisation, which
include easier access to health centres and education, far outweigh the
disadvantages."

The report warns, however, that if unaddressed the growth of urbanisation
will mean growth in slums and poverty, as well as a rise in attempted
migration away from poor regions. "Today one billion people live in slums,
90% of whom are in developing countries. The battle to cut extreme poverty
... will be waged in the slums. To win it, politicians need to be
proactive and start working with the urban poor. The only way to defeat
urban poverty is head on," said Ms Obaid.

Climate is expected to increasingly shape and be shaped by cities. In a
vicious circle, climate change will increase energy demand for air
conditioning in cities, which will add to greenhouse gas emissions. It
could also make some cities unlivable, adding to the "heat island" effect,
which can lift temperatures in urban areas by 2-6C. "Heat, pollution, smog
and ground-level ozone [from cities] affect surrounding areas, reducing
agricultural yields, increasing health risks and spawning tornadoes and
thunderstorms. The impacts of climate change on urban water supplies are
expected to be dramatic," the report says. Cities like New Delhi, in the
drier areas, will be particularly hard hit.

What is taking place today, says the UN, is a second great wave of global
urbanisation. The first, in Europe, from 1750-1950, boosted the numbers
living in cities to about 420 million, but the second is expected to
increase urbanisation levels close to those found in Europe (72%) and the
US (81%) today.

However, developing countries are at a great disadvantage when they start
to urbanise. "Mortality has fallen rapidly in the last 50 years, achieving
in one or two decades what developed countries accomplished in two
centuries. The speed and scale of urbanisation today is far greater than
in the past. In the first wave of urbanisation, overseas migrations [to
the US or Australia] relieved the pressures on European cities. Many
migrants settled in new agricultural lands. Restrictions on international
migration today makes this almost impossible. They will also have to build
faster than any rich country has ever done. It will require houses, power,
water, sanitation and roads."

The report also spells the end for growth of existing mega-cities. "Only
Dhaka in Bangladesh, and Lagos in Nigeria, of the world's 20 mega-cities,
are expected to grow more than 3% a year in the next decade ... most
growth will be in smaller cities, of under 500,000 people. The good news
is these cities are more flexible [in expansion]; the bad is they are
under-served in housing, water, and waste disposal."

Ms Obaid said: "It concerns everyone, not just developing countries. If we
plan ahead we will create conditions for a stable world. If we do not, and
do not find education, jobs, and houses for people in cities, then these
populations will become destructive, to themselves and others."

Additional research by Guy Shrubsole