[Urbanstudy] India at highest flood risk with urban expansion, analysis shows

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India at highest flood risk with urban expansion, analysis shows
An online global flood-analyzing tool developed by WRI showed India topped
the list among countries with population affected by river flooding
Archana Chaudhary
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[image: India at highest flood risk with urban expansion, analysis shows]
A file photo of floods in Uttarakhand. Photo: AP
*New Delhi:* Gross domestic product (GDP) at risk of flooding in India, the
world’s second-most populous nation, may surge 10-fold by 2030 as cities
expand and climate challenges worsen, according to the World Resources
Institute (WRI).
A new online global flood-analyzing tool developed by WRI and four Dutch
research agencies showed India topped the list among countries with
population affected by river flooding on average each year.
WRI ranked 163 countries by number of people impacted by river flooding.
Led by India, the 15 worst-hit accounted for almost 80% of the total
population affected. Bangladesh was a distant second, then China, followed
by Vietnam, Pakistan and Indonesia, the tool showed.
India faces more potential change in exposed GDP than any country at $140
billion. China is next at $98 billion. Using what WRI called “a
middle-of-the road scenario,” the analyzer estimates India’s current GDP
exposed annually could increase 10-fold from $14 billion to $154 billion by
2030.
River flooding currently impacts 21 million people worldwide on average and
costs $96 billion in GDP each year, according to the analysis. In 15 years,
those numbers may grow to 54 million people and $521 billion in GDP
affected annually.
The cost and loss from floods played out last September when India deployed
300,000 military personnel in Jammu and Kashmir to rescue 130,000 people
after a week of rain caused riverbanks to burst, killing about 500 in India
and Pakistan. In 2013, the worst flash floods in 90 years killed 580 and
left 5,000 more missing in the northern states of Himachal Pradesh and
Uttarakhand.
*Mitigating risks*
Annual economic losses from natural disasters have almost quadrupled in the
past three decades, the World Bank said in 2013.
In particular, southeast Asia faces a notable increase in risk, according
to Hessel Winsemius, a researcher at Netherlands-based Deltares, one of the
project partners.
The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer estimates current and future potential
exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for
every state, country and major river basin in the world.
Attention to flood-risk reduction will be needed in fast-growing cities in
areas such as Ho Chi Minh in the Mekong delta, Dhaka in Bangladesh and
Shanghai in the Yangtze basin, he said.
“In changing climate in particular, memory of historical floods from the
last few years is not a good estimation of what flood risks could be in the
coming years,” said Erin Coughlan, senior climate specialist for the Red
Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “People need to evaluate those risks and
take action now instead of being surprised in the future.” *Bloomberg*
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